Climate change vs human change

COP26 on climate change concluded in Glasgow. In brief, the main “decisions”.

• Objective maintained: to limit the temperature increase in 2050 to 1.5 degrees C (today we are 1.1!). If the goal is to contain global warming by 1.5 ° C, the world should cut the greenhouse gas emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels. On the basis of the commitments made with the 2016 Paris agreements, emissions are likely to rise by 16% by 2030. The prospect is for an increase of 3 degrees , not containment at 2 ° C, possibly at 1.5 ° C.
• Request to countries (for now there are 120) to practice single goals and plans by next November. Others to define them. New evaluation criteria and homogeneity of the data indicated by them.
• Intensify efforts to reduce the use of coal as an energy source except in the presence of CO2 capture systems (expensive and not applicable to all power plants). China, South Africa, Poland, Croatia which depend a lot on coal at 60/80% need time).
• The end of fossil fuel subsidies: a still insufficient start.
• The promise of 100 billion dollars a year is still maintained for the countries most affected by climate change and for the development of renewables in the poorest countries.
• Stop deforestation by 2030 (but the date should be brought forward!).
• Reduce by 30% the very harmful losses of methane in the extraction and pipelines.

Right direction without resolve. According to economist Jeffrey Sachs, “it's not true that everything is a bla bla bla about climate change: the list of things to do is clear. There are a lot of political and practical zero-carbon obstacles, and for that it seems like a bla bla bla, but I believe we are going in the right direction. Even if not yet with the resolve that is needed ». For example, behind the radical request from the conclusions of the COP26 young people: "The abolition of the fossil fuel industry must begin quickly and immediately with the total elimination by 2030 at the latest".

The issue of the transition from fossil fuels is the central issue. The most effective and convenient solutions are many, including technological actions, market instruments, finance. If you need to change emissions quickly, you need to reduce and eliminate eg. over time the advantage today of fossil fuels that do not pay for their pollution, that receive subsidies, tax breaks and public funding for their infrastructures and favor other forms of energy with new infrastructures.
Those who reduce their emissions (energy efficiency, electrification of energy consumption, decarbonisation of electricity production) can have an economic incentive, or a carbon tax is applied to encourage renewables. Such a strong systemic change, a transition from fossil fuels, requires collective democratic action (including voting) to induce rulers to decide on political priorities and laws, the necessary investments and mitigate the social consequences that will occur. Let's focus now also on what Italy can do right away.


Carlo Degiacomi
NP December 2021