Come on energy, best wishes!

COP28 took place in Dubai from 30 November to 12 December 2023: 197 States + European Union. The climate conferences are convened to deal with a climate emergency that is approaching the point of no return: according to the latest report from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) the global increase in temperature is 1. 1 °C compared to the pre-industrial era (1850/1900). In Mediterranean countries and Europe it is even 2.2 °C!

It is still possible to contain the increase in average global temperature to within 1.5 °C only by starting the transition away from fossil fuels in a serious and defined way. Again according to the IPCC it is a question of political will. On the one hand multilateralism, on the other particularisms and nationalisms. Pope Francis also wanted to say what he said: «We are witnessing rigid if not inflexible positions that tend to only look after their own interests [...]. But the task we are called to do today is not towards yesterday, but towards tomorrow." It has escaped no one's notice that in a period of crisis of globalization, of readjustment of world balances (and also in areas close to Europe), of wars originating from aims irreconcilable with peace and democracy, the theme of themes, not only environmental, climate change struggles to be taken seriously by political decision makers. From the lobbies of producing countries that expand extraction, to Russia that thinks it has partisan advantages by blocking common decisions, to Brazil without a strategic vision that prefers to accept some donations immediately to take sides against its own interests and those of Latin America. The UN and Europe either manage to make decisions by majority vote or they increasingly fall into the blockade of collective institutions. Europe has already decided that we need to reach 50% energy from renewables and 20% energy efficiency by 2030. Up to now it has decided on the path of green policy. He also translated this with many steps, financing and objectives (albeit opposed by states in the hands of sovereignists) with the end of sales of internal combustion engine cars by 2035, with commitments for waste recycling, with agricultural techniques and of farms. We then remember the concrete commitments on the circular economy, safeguarding ecosystems of CO2 absorbers. But without a road map to get away from fossil fuels, the 2040 goal is not feasible.

Was COP28 a turning point? A question that is difficult to answer except in an articulated way, after all a long game of chess has just begun... To put it simply, the expectations of the choices to be made in view of the 2030 were at least three: tripling the installed capacity of renewable energy; double energy efficiency. Finally, a point much contested by the fossil lobbies: starting in stages the gradual exit from fossil fuels, coal, gas, oil.

Triplicating renewable capacity means reaching 11 thousand gigawatts, triple the current power. Today it costs less than oil and is certainly the future. The IPCC believes that peak fossil energy consumption should be reached in 2025, and then begin a rapid decline. However, it must be kept in mind that the oil producers' lobby (OPEC), which holds 80% of the world's oil reserves, has asked member countries to reject any text that aims to reduce the use of fossil fuels. We also learned the subtle and different meaning of various English words: long discussion on words like phasing out (useful and non-dilatory commitment) or phasing down (decrease gradual) – generic indication. Ultimately, however, the need to transition away from fossil fuels was recognized. For the first time in these world meetings, to reach zero emissions in 2050, transition away was used, far from the gradual elimination requested by Europe, but still indicating the escape from gas, oil and charcoal.

In this phase we must pay close attention to the information that is disseminated. There is a lot of talk about the technology for capturing and storing CO2 at emission: they are only pilot projects for now, for some sectors (cement and chemistry). Today there are 35 plants in the world which, with high management costs, have absorbed 45 million tonnes of CO2. The technology is in its infancy, but global emissions of 22 billion tonnes of CO2 would need to be reduced using many other tools. Finally, the oil lobby (50 companies, including Eni) has signed the Global Charter for Decarbonisation. The promise is to reduce emissions from oil and gas production (not from transport and consumption! ) with a voluntary agreement. Will it be a sign of hope for global cooperation? It's not a question of whether to make the ecological transition, but how to do it.


Carlo Degiacomi
NP January 2024