Undecided duelists

An analysis in three episodes on the European directive of 2035, on the future of mobility and on the prospects of the automotive sector "To build tomorrow, what we do today counts".

«Even Enel's advertising is more common sense than certain political and social positions. The issue of the electric car is not just an ecological issue, it is a complex, economic and social issue.

The questions, also in this case, are fundamental, cultural, not just technical, on how to react to innovation. In Italy this issue is discussed badly. The European Union has decided (discussion started in 2019) in the Council to stop the construction of motor cars with fossil fuels from 2035. Italy, which had been one of the promoters, abstained (equivalent to voting against) after leading the opposition with Poland, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic. The goal is to reduce CO2 emissions and smog in exhaust (a very Italian problem). 55% of the states, 15 out of 27, are needed to say yes, which must represent at least 62% of the population. Germany then aligned itself with the vast majority, once it obtained support for the production of internal combustion engine cars even after 2035, as long as they are powered by synthetic fuels. Just remember that Germany aims to have 15 million electric cars on the road in 2050 (1.7 million a year) with Volkswagen investing 122 billion euros until 2027. Now defeated Italy would be content to keep the engines internal combustion fueled by the production of biogas.

Let's see one point at a time, to avoid a discussion that puts everything together in the same cauldron.

In Italy there is the oldest car park in Europe. With 5 million cars still at Euro 0; 5 million euros 1 and 2, 7.1 million euros 6. A total of 39 million cars. Only 172,000 the electricity fleet in circulation. A park that not only does not cause climate-altering emissions of CO2, but also of fine dust, harmful to health, especially in the Po Valley. As for the car market in Italy in 2022, we have 1,316,000 cars sold. In the lead are hybrids 42.9%, about 10% pure electric and plug-in electrics; petrol 27.8% and diesel 19.6%. To which are added the plug-in hybrids that can be connected to the normal electrical outlet - or even to the columns - to recharge the batteries, unlike traditional hybrids that need the internal combustion engine to recharge the batteries. A decline in the domestic market should be noted: 49,000 cars sold in 2022 against 68,000 in 2021. We are the only large European country in which registrations of electric cars have decreased, when in the EU market forecasts for electric cars (including plug-ins ) indicate the figure of 20.6 million sales in 2025 (23% of the total, today in Italy we are below 4%). Let us then dwell on the production of cars today in the world and in Italy.

Car production in Italy is increasingly reduced: 5 out of 6 cars sold are built abroad. There are over 2,400 companies in the Italian automotive supply chain (of which 33.3% in Piedmont). 73.8% are companies working on petrol and diesel engines, the others on other technologies, with 280,000 employees.

The manufacturers, including the European ones Renault, Stellantis, Volkswagen have long bet on the electric car and say they are ready for 2030, therefore ahead of the date under discussion. They ask for certainty because uncertainty is harmful. They argue that the new standards still envisaged for internal combustion engines, euro 7, are useless because they require huge investments that should be turned to electricity. Today they already produce: a-light hybrid; b-full Hybrid; c-Plugin Hybrid; pure electric.

In 2035, cars with current engines will still be in business and won't disappear all at once. The solutions relating to synthetic fuels, hydrogen, biofuels will serve to make the exit sweeter, certainly not to compete with electricity. In particular, the current plans of Stellantis in Italy on the electric car foresee the Melfi and Cassino plants with platforms for electric vehicles. A gigafactory in Termoli and a battery recycling hub in Turin Mirafiori. It would be worth supporting the development of technologies that intend to overcome petrol and diesel with an adequate industrial policy.

On the other side of the world, China is able through its large manufacturing companies (Geely and BYD) to produce plug-in hybrid cars costing 15,000 for the European and Italian market as it is able to lower fixed costs for labor and the availability of metals and battery components. Today it already produces 60% of the world's electric cars.

The United States has allocated 369 billion dollars for sustainability, of which 174 for electric traction alone: for purchases of electric vehicles with tax credits and the installation of 500,000 new columns (mostly fast-fast charging). The USA is betting that in 2030 the battery-powered electricity market will account for 50% of the total. The funds are also aimed at developing innovative solutions for motorbikes, light commercial vehicles and specific buses for urban centres. Particularly interesting is the research for heavy transport: either the possibility of replacing batteries along the way or the use of hydrogen for heavier transport over long distances.

Carlo Degiacomi

NP Aprile 2023