Three-dimensional effects

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its food, energy and financial repercussions in Africa.

Social unrest such as in 2011 when the surge in prices caused the revolts of the "Arab Spring" in North Africa and Syria, which gave rise to unresolved conflicts

The war in Ukraine is bringing Africa to its knees. According to the United Nations Global Crisis Response Group, the world is grappling with a three-dimensional crisis: of food, energy and finance. "The war is affecting some of the most vulnerable people, countries and economies in the world," warned Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations.

There are also three triggers, because the war in Ukraine has touched an international context already brought to its knees by Covid-19 and climate change. The international body believes there are 41 African countries with the greatest exposure to at least one emergency caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war.

African countries are the most exposed to price fluctuations, as they spend most of their income on food and energy, the report reads. And they are not self-sufficient in their food supply, but they are dependent on imports.

Africa is among the major importers not only of Ukrainian wheat, but also of fertilizers. The increase in the cost of fertilizers could seriously exacerbate poverty and food security in sub-Saharan Africa where 70% of the population practices subsistence agriculture, that is, they eat what they grow and use any surplus for bartering and small businesses. Social unrest such as in 2011 when the surge in prices caused the revolts of the "Arab Spring" in North Africa and Syria, which gave rise to unresolved conflicts, cannot be ruled out.

There are also those who argue that Moscow, despite the support of many African countries, has planned the destabilization of areas of the continent to create enormous migratory flows towards Europe. Certainly, beyond the hypotheses of fiction and propaganda, increasing flows have already been reported in Libya and the Canary Islands.

The region that is worse off is the Horn of Africa struggling with the worst drought in forty years, as UN climatologists warn: "Three consecutive dry seasons have pushed hundreds of thousands of people to leave their homes, killed vast swathes of livestock and affected crops, fueled malnutrition and increased the risk of disease ”.

Food prices continue to rise sharply. Northern Ethiopia (in the regions of Tigray, Afar and Amhara) has been hit more by civil war for 18 months. Since January, the number of families without safe access to clean and safe water has almost doubled throughout the Horn of Africa: from 5.6 million to 10.5 million.

The number of people with food insecurity has increased from 9 million to 1. The number of out-of-school children remained high: 15 million. Another 1.1 million children are at risk of dropping out and thousands of schools already lack access to water. UNICEF warns that the number of children facing severe drought in the Horn of Africa has increased by more than 40% within two months: from 7.25 million to at least 10 million and more than 1.7 million. children in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia need urgent treatment for severe acute malnutrition.

In this catastrophic picture of war, famine and climate change, an insane figure stands out: for the seventh consecutive year, military spending increased in 2021. The total allocated worldwide for the production of weapons and, more generally, for defense, was equal to 2.1 trillion dollars, the highest in history, according to a new report by the International Research Institute. on the peace of Stockholm (Sipri).

In short, humanity still chooses war, it is more than ever necessary for the voice of men of good will to be heard.

Paolo Lambruschi

NP Maggio 2022