The Challenges of Mogadishu

Somalia continues to struggle against jihadist terrorism. The other challenges facing the country, decimated by three decades of civil war, are famines and external instability.

It will be a decisive year for the future of Somalia. President Hassan Sheikh's government is continuing the fight against jihadist terrorism by Al Shabaab, which until three years ago had a stronghold around Mogadishu, but today only controls rural areas hundreds of kilometers away (although it still retains the ability to strike the capital). The other challenges of this country of 18 million people, decimated by three decades of civil war, are famines and external wars. It is crucial for peace in Africa to see if it will be able to overcome them.

Hassan Sheikh's government has already secured the reduction of billions of dollars of public debt, convinced the UN Security Council to ease the arms embargo, and officially joined the East African common market. In short, some progress has been made even though there are still several critical issues that Somalia cannot face alone. Starting with the defeat of terrorism itself. The problem is not the 7-8 thousand armed jihadists, but the widespread support from clans. The government will have to demonstrate that it can independently provide for its own security because the African Union peace mission will withdraw in December. And if, in the capital Mogadishu, people have learned to live with the fear of attacks in a continuous search for normalcy made of construction sites and smartphones, in rural areas about 7 million people are dealing with the biblical plagues of hunger, war, and disease. Extreme poverty, malnutrition, climate change hitting the Horn of Africa particularly hard - with years of drought followed by violent rains and unprecedented floods that have devastated agriculture - are hardly manageable individually, given the simultaneous rise in fertilizer and cereal prices resulting from the Russo-Ukrainian war and the concentration of global humanitarian aid on that front and in Gaza.

Furthermore, Somalia must face two sets of threats, one internal and the other external. The first is high-level corruption, among the worst in the world, which contaminates every segment of political and social life; the second is Ethiopian pressure to have an outlet to the Red Sea. The stretch of sea has become strategic for international trade and Somalia, with the longest coastline in Africa from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, is a key player in controlling it. But the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the former British protectorate that has been claiming independence for decades, to lease the port of Berbera and 20 km of coastline to Addis Ababa, has strained relations between the two countries. Prime Minister Abiy has pledged to pay the rent by ceding 20% of the ownership of Ethiopian Airlines and above all by recognizing Somaliland. Mogadishu has said it is ready to fight to defend its territorial integrity, garnering the support of Eritrea and Djibouti, Turkey, and the USA.

Hassan Sheikh has also renewed the political-military cooperation agreement with Ankara while Ethiopia, according to Somalis, is supported by the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi fears the port competition from Mogadishu. What role can Italy play? Whether in the spirit of the Mattei Plan or not, our historic relations with the two rivals can be used by our diplomacy for mediation, while we should help Somali security not through arms sales, but by training doctors, lawyers, architects, and engineers in our universities and all the necessary figures for development, as well as initiating cooperation projects in fishing and agriculture, returning to Somalis the great wealth stolen from them by war.

Paolo Lambruschi

NP Marzo 2024