Trust effect

According to the latest World Happiness Report 2021, based on data collected in 2020 in 150 countries, the worst effect of the pandemic can be found in the 2 million deaths from Covid-19, an increase of almost 4% in the number annual number of deaths worldwide. For those who are alive, the pandemic has generated economic insecurity, anxiety, change in many aspects of their lives and, for many people, stress and mental and physical health problems.
More specifically, the variation in subjective well-being between 2017-2019 and 2020 is quite different among the 150 countries analyzed, but not enough to change the rankings significantly: Northern European countries remain in the top ten of the most happy, while poorer, institutionally fragile and economically unequal countries (such as Afghanistan, Zimbabwe and Rwanda) remain at the bottom of the list. This shows that Covid-19 has brought modest changes in the overall rankings, reflecting both the global nature of the pandemic and a certain degree of resilience that has united very different countries.
Emotions changed more than satisfaction with one's life during the first year of Covid-19, worsening during the lockdown and then recovering faster. For the world as a whole, in 2020 there has been no overall change in terms of positive emotions, while negative emotions, on average, see a decreasing trend: the data shows an increase of about 10% in the number of people that the day before the interview they said they were worried or sad.

One component that can significantly explain the variation in life satisfaction is trust and the ability to rely on others. These factors were measured by asking people how much they think a lost wallet will be returned if found by a police officer, neighbor, or stranger. Answers to this question are estimated to influence one's life assessment more than income, unemployment and health conditions.

Confidence is even more important in explaining the huge international differences in Covid-19 death rates, substantially higher in the Americas and Europe than in East Asia, Australia and Africa. These differences are almost half due to differences in the demographic structure of countries (Covid-19 is more deadly for the elderly) and to how much each country was exposed to infections in neighboring countries at the beginning of the pandemic.
Regardless of the initial circumstances, according to the report, the most effective strategy for controlling Covid-19 appears to have been to bring the virus to zero within the community and keep it there. Countries that have adopted this strategy have shown death rates close to zero and have been able to avoid second death waves, closing 2020 with a smaller reduction in GDP and with lower death rates.
Finally, the report identifies some factors that support the strategies to combat Covid-19 that have proved to be the most successful. First of all, among these, there is trust in public institutions: in countries where institutions are perceived as more reliable, politicians are able to get citizens to support the actions required. Income inequality is another important factor: a less unequal society is a more cohesive society, in which we trust each other more, and therefore a society where it is more likely to find citizens who adhere to public directives.

These results are mostly correlations and do not allow to establish a cause-effect relationship between the variables involved. However, they are interesting, as they allow us to identify possible dimensions on which to develop more causal studies and design policies to improve the well-being of citizens in times of crisis.


Pierluigi Conzo
NP August / September