I drive

(The two previous episodes were published in NP in April and May)

We concluded in the last issue: «We certainly cannot leave the internal combustion engine the leading role it has today» . The idea of mobility will change quickly: with over 246 million cars, the car fleet circulating today in Europe is not only to be replaced, but also to be reduced. One forecast is that in the space of a few tens of years Italy will reduce the number of cars in circulation by 10/15 million vehicles. The concept of possession and social recognition will necessarily have to change, especially in cities, favoring the use of different means such as public transport (subway, trains, buses), car-sharing, rental. Pnrr investments are currently oriented towards metro lines, regional and urban trains with more frequent runs, halving transit times.

Central is the concept of interdependence between sectors: it is increasingly important to integrate the use of cars with mobility in general. I cite two examples that are less and less futuristic and more and more current: the integration of cars and digital technology and autonomous driving. The novelty lies in promoting the use of the car as a service and not as possession. Consider Toyota's current strategies (with Kinto Share). We offer the customer the best solution for travel based on the needs of the moment. The car is part of the service and is no longer the center. Among the tools used: car sharing, subscription cars, short and long-term rental, especially for home/work transport. With applications and platforms it is possible to buy train tickets, public transport, pay for parking, taxis, rent bikes. Another interesting example concerns the Flixbus platform based on the coordination of local transport companies, attentive to stops in cities with fewer than 30,000 inhabitants. It made about 10 million people travel in Italy alone, 1/6 of the 62 million passengers on the bus.

Then there is the chapter on autonomous driving: the major automotive groups are creating a shared operating system for hi-tech cars in collaboration with Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon. Specifically, we are witnessing a great development of adas, electronic devices equipped with artificial intelligence, useful for safety and autonomous driving. Autonomous cars could be a reality within 3-4 years, today they have reached the 3rd level out of the 5 expected before being actually usable.
This is what technological development is about, another matter is the cultural and legislative plan. On the one hand, the prospect of rapid developments and improvements in both technology and the necessary infrastructure; on the other hand, the popularity and usability of the electric car today and its costs today.

Following correct (and not instrumental) reasoning and general information (economic, environmental, social) it is possible to enter into the merits of the details, the accounts and the conveniences, provided that within a discourse of perspective, keeping into consideration the very rapid steps taken and which will be taken in the next two or three years (with the hope that our country too will seriously commit itself and follow what the other states are doing).
Electric cars cost on average 25/30% more than a similar model with a heat engine, mainly due to the cost of the battery pack. By extending the quantities and models, the price could go down quickly. Many studies argue that many average models will be competitive with internal combustion engine models within 4 years. The maintenance costs of the electric car, since there are much fewer components, are lower from the point of view of the "engine". The lower cost of the stamp duty and other advantages must also be considered.

Who can afford an electric car today? What are the real costs? What level of technology have you reached? Who got there? Is it more or less convenient than a car with a traditional engine? Instead of recognizing that we are living in a time of great and rapid transformation, many improvised "experts" - especially on social networks - prefer to make often incorrect calculations to oppose the electric, to discourage purchases, to prolong the past. Serious cost calculations can be made, bearing in mind that there are many variables.
The advantage is great if you have sockets at home and in the condominium and perhaps solar panels on the roof: average cost 0.52 kWh at home; 0.89 kWh at a plug in a public place (almost double). A full tank costs about 20 euros at home (great if you have solar panels); about 35 euros on urban draft. For a petrol engine, we calculate 40 liters of fuel for around 75 euros of expenditure. Depending on use and driving, it covers approximately 650 km. The cost is therefore more or less the same as today. But let's take a look at the future: cars will consume an average of 14/15 kWh per 100 km in 2030 (1/3 today).

However, they are obstacles that can be overcome, it is enough to have a long-term strategy, to overcome defensive positions that prevent us from imagining the future, building it, anticipating it. I remember that Italy was the last Western country to ban lead in petrol. Yet it was an indispensable choice for health and the environment.


Carlo Degiacomi
NP June / July 2023