The fight for water

Water is becoming a source of crisis in the Horn of Africa and in the north of the continent. Fresh water from the Nile and salt water from the Red Sea. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was officially inaugurated on September 9th. It was built by the Italian company Webuild (formerly Impregilo, the company that is expected to build the bridge over the Strait) 15 kilometers from the border with Sudan and about 700 kilometers from Addis Ababa. It will aid Ethiopia's development by producing energy to electrify 60% of Africa's second-largest country. According to the Ministry of Water and Energy in Addis Ababa, the dam will allow energy to be exported to Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti, Tanzania, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, and, ultimately, Yemen, covering up to 20% of East Africa's consumption. But the Blue Nile's water is essential for Sudan and Egypt's agriculture, and there is no treaty regulating the use of this blue gold. Cairo, in particular, is therefore at the forefront of opposition to the mega-dam, as it draws 90% of its water needs from the Nile and fears that filling the GERD reservoir would drastically reduce the river's flow, compromising agriculture, water supplies, and the Aswan Dam's electricity generation. In the event of a drought, it fears that Ethiopia might prioritize its energy interests at the expense of water flows.

Former Egyptian Deputy Foreign Minister Higazy called Ethiopia's opening of the dam "an irresponsible and hostile unilateral act, a crime against the environment, and an assault on regional security" for failing to agree on the rules for filling and operating the dam with Egypt and Sudan. Al Sisi's government reserves the right to take diplomatic or legal action, including before the UN Security Council.

Sudan, torn by civil war since April 2023, sees the Ethiopian dam as an opportunity to import low-cost energy and benefit from a more regular flow of the Nile River, which is always at risk of flooding. However, it fears that unilateral Ethiopian management could damage its dams and jeopardize the food security of millions of people. Costing approximately five billion dollars, largely self-financed through government-issued bonds, the colossal dam has helped the Ethiopian government relaunch its position as an energy powerhouse and revitalize its access to the sea.

Since 1991, the year of Eritrean independence that took Assabe Massawa, Ethiopia, which has over 120 million inhabitants and must find new forms of development, has been landlocked on the Red Sea, which has since become one of the richest trade routes on the planet thanks to the passage of Chinese and Asian products to the EU. In early 2024, Prime Minister Abiy asserted the nation's right to access the sea and signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland—formally a Somali regional state, but which for 30 years has acted as if it were independent—to lease 30 km of coastline and the port of Berbera. This memorandum caused strong tensions with Mogadishu, which were only calmed by the intervention of Turkish President Erdogan. Thus, Prime Minister Aby Ahmed has set his sights on the Eritrean port of Assab, escalating tensions with his former ally in the 2020-22 Tigray civil war.

Asmara has already declared that it will defend itself, and although it ordered its troops to massacre thousands of Tigrayan civilians and carry out looting when it was allied with the Ethiopians in the bloody conflict in Northern Ethiopia, today dictator Isayas Afewerkisi is aligned with the military wing of the TPLF party, which seeks revenge on Abiy, who removed him from central power and defeated them on the ground. Eritrea's staunch ally is Egypt, willing to do anything to weaken Ethiopia and its dam.


Paolo Lambruschi
NP October 2025