New shadows

Publish date 11-12-2024

by Paolo Lambruschi

The regional game of risk in the Horn of Africa is getting more complicated and new players are entering to change alliances and strategies, seriously increasing the risks of a new armed conflict, now that war has been cleared again. Thus an area that could potentially grow at double-digit rates and reduce the high poverty rates of the population already bent by climate change, risks seeing new wars, this time for water.

It is in fact the Nile disputed between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt that is the basis of Cairo's joint intervention in the Horn of Africa. The large dam on the Nile in Ethiopia is about to be completed, which would allow the country to solve its energy problems, but at the same time would take away water from the Sudanese and Egyptian fields. The dam is therefore the first element of crisis. Sudan is currently out of the picture, torn apart by a terrible civil war that is causing the most serious humanitarian crisis in Africa; therefore, only Egypt remains on the ground, having decided to stop Ethiopian development ambitions, exploiting the power acquired with the USA and Israel for its role in the Palestinian question. The Egyptians have supplied decimals of soldiers and weapons to Somalia officially to fight the jihadists of Al-Shabaab, in reality to take sides in the tensions that divide Mogadishu from Addis Ababa for the water of the Red Sea, the second element of regional tension.

A year ago, in fact, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed gave a speech in which he claimed for his country, the second in Africa by number of inhabitants, direct access to the sea to be able to participate in international maritime trade. This was followed by an agreement with Somaliland, the former British Somalia formally a region of Somalia, but de facto independent for about 30 years. Agreement that provides for a thirty-year lease to the Ethiopians of a stretch of coast of the port of Berbera where they will probably open a military base. For Somalia, this is a real attack on its territorial integrity.

Cairo's intervention complicates everything. Somaliland immediately declared that it will never return to being part of Somalia and is ready to fight. Local media say that in the meantime Ethiopia has sent weapons to Puntland, a region bordering Somaliland and also with secessionist aims. At this point Somalia risks a new civil war and a conflict with Ethiopia. But Addis Ababa is not doing much better either. The wounds of the Tigrai war have not yet healed, the economy is struggling and with inflation skyrocketing, people are struggling to get by. In addition, the country is shaken by the usual tensions between ethnic groups. In this gloomy picture, we find the ambitions of Eritrea, ruled for 30 years by the dictator Isaias Isaias Afewerki, who would like to further weaken Ethiopia - which after the alliance to fight the Tigrayans has returned to being a target - and has formed an alliance with Somalia. The role of Eritrea is ambiguous, small, but with a strategic position on the sea and with hegemonic ambitions in the Horn, strong in the support of the United Arab Emirates. Which have significant economic and strategic interests in the Horn and are not watching the Egyptian advance.

The Emirates have relations with Somaliland and Ethiopia, the Saudis with the Egyptians who would also control the entry and exit of the Red Sea from Somalia, where a tenth of global maritime trade passes. In short, the risk of chaos is very high, but for those who are not interested in power games, let us remember that in the Horn of Africa at least 30 million people risk dying of hunger, thirst and disease. And that the generation born in the new millennium risks being denied the right to live in peace in their own home and having to choose between dying on the traffickers' routes or fighting.


Paolo Lambruschi
NP October 2024

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