It won't be a good year

Two key developments at the end of 2025 will shape 2026 in Africa. In the West, the Christmas bombing by the US contingent in Africa, AFRICOM, ordered by Donald Trump on what are believed to be ISIS bases in Nigeria, although the government in Abuja has clarified that it was an operation against the criminals carrying out the kidnappings. Washington, however, viewed the bombing as retribution against Islamist terrorists threatening Christians.

In the East, the not-so-surprising recognition of Somaliland by Benjamin Netanyahu's Israeli government. This is the first state to recognize the former British Somalia, which has acted as if it were independent since 1992, but is still formally part of federal Somalia. What are the consequences of this recognition? They could be dramatic for the region, but also for the future of the Gaza Strip itself, as it is one of the lands designated for the deportation of Palestinians who previously lived there. This displacement, besides being illegal if forced, could lead to further destabilization in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somalia, which has been torn apart by nearly 35 years of civil war. In short, it's a classic lit match in a powder keg. Sending alleged Hamas supporters to Somaliland, where Al-Shabaab (an Al-Qaeda affiliate) and ISIS are operating, and furthermore, across the border from Yemen, where the Houthis operate, supplying weapons to Somali terrorists, could lead to further chaos. Even in Somaliland, which has stayed away from the civil war and has been able to grow during these decades of relative peace.

Who are the masterminds behind the two operations? The Nigerian version draws on the simplification applied primarily by evangelical churches, which see the kidnappings of students, pastors, and faithful as merely a manifestation of Christian persecution. For the Catholic Church, however, the situation is much more complex, and alongside the persecution, it also includes a purely criminal component, as demonstrated by the kidnappings of Muslims. And it is on this second basis that Nigeria bases its collaboration with the Americans. Even though the facts demonstrate that the raids do not solve the problem of poverty, exacerbated by the Trump administration's abrupt $8 billion cut in USAID humanitarian funding, which has particularly affected Africa. Thus, domestic consensus within the American government is behind the Christmas bombing, while on the other side of Africa, behind the recognition of Somaliland, we see the convergence of Israeli interests with those of the United States and the United Arab Emirates, which have supported the government of the independent northern Somali region for years.

The Israelis are, in fact, interested in having a reliable partner in the Red Sea that can welcome some of the Palestinian refugees from Gaza. The Emirates, the first signatories of the Abraham Pact with Israel, are interested in sterilizing Hamas and controlling the Red Sea. Washington, on the other hand, wants a partner in the Horn of Africa and a more reliable Red Sea beachhead than Mogadishu's federal Somalia, torn apart by a civil war fueled by clan divisions and where maintaining security is much more expensive. All this without considering the complications for the population. Somalia is on the front lines of climate change, which is turning it into desert; a third of the population lives on humanitarian aid and is only able to fight Al-Shabaab terrorists thanks to the African Union contingent working with the armed forces. It is one of the poorest and most corrupt countries on the planet, struggling to recover; abandoning it to its fate, as it was in 1992, would be dangerous and cynical.

Paolo Lambruschi
NP January 2026