Immigration: Orban wins like this

A few months ago, the new and controversial European Pact on Migration and Asylum came into force, with many debatable points and the absence of the promised structural solution! In a few months, we have already gone much further.

Fifteen EU countries, on the initiative of Denmark, have asked for «new solutions to address irregular immigration to Europe», mentioning the temporary emergency mechanisms in Rwanda and Niger, where migrants stranded in Libya are transferred, and asking to also study the mechanism of "repatriation hubs" in third countries. Some states have asked to self-exclude from the European rules on migration and asylum (the Netherlands and Hungary). In September, Germany closed all external borders, followed by other countries (Austria and Denmark); the new French government has already taken a much more restrictive stance, the Polish one has obtained the suspension of the right to asylum and the European Commission assigns the immigration portfolio to the Austrian "hawk" Brunner.

In his recent speech before the European Parliament, in which there was a heavy direct clash with a good part of the hemicycle, Viktor Orban gloated: «Since 2015, you have all told me that I was an idiot or a devil for having this point of view on migrants. But today all the capitals are coming to my position» and confirmed that the European Council of Internal Affairs would have the issue of "repatriation hubs" on the agenda. The issue is now no longer just for the so-called right, even socialist-led governments or coalitions with Greens and Liberals (inside and outside the EU, like Berlin and London) are now going in the same direction. President von der Leyen herself has once again raised the issue of “migration” at the European Council in terms of strengthening external border control, of enhanced cooperation in repatriation and has explicitly opened up to the “Albania model”, «especially in view of a new legislative proposal on repatriations».

The idea already discarded in 2018 by the Juncker Commission, because it was considered illegal according to EU law and with a high risk of violating the principle of non-refoulement, is now at the center of the table. As Orban and others have always preached: «The only way to avoid having unwanted immigrants on home soil is to not let them in at all». With a diabolical addition: let's make hubs in the Balkan countries, tying the acceleration of accession negotiations to the acceptance of such hubs... But in the corridors there are many diplomats from many states who believe that this is yet another "optical illusion" because there are millions of people who enter the EU legally and just 300 thousand "illegal" entries and two thirds of asylum seekers entered with a tourist or temporary legal visa. Therefore a policy beyond the data of reality.
Forgetting that the EU has a huge migratory problem which are internal ones, from the east to the more affluent regions of the west, and demographic trends. A massive exodus that has plagued the enlargement countries for three decades, with peaks already up to 30% (Latvia) to an average for most of them above 20% (Hungary in the lead). Eurostat itself tells us that, given the current serious demographic trends, the aging Europe with low immigration would drop by the end of the century from the current 450 million to 370/350, while with moderate immigration it could drop to only 420 million. With all the devastating impacts on the already asphyxiated labor market, the structures of public finances, the financing of welfare and the future of the continent.

As Filippo Grandi, a solitary prophet, says (UNHCR), the obsession with borders does not work, it often does not respect the obligations of international law and above all does not address the two great knots of the problem: the root causes in the States of origin (wars, climate, poverty) and the demographic ones in the countries of destination. On this Europe is tragically failing.


Luca Jahier
NP November 2024